Welcome back to the Welsh Bull newsletter.

Markets are entering a phase that separates gamblers from operators.

Crypto volatility is rising.
Macro pressure is building.
Liquidity is tightening.
Sentiment is breaking.

And yet… price is bouncing.

This is exactly where investors get confused.

Let’s break down what’s actually happening.

Good crypto news has been rare lately.

Regulatory optimism is fading, with approval odds for the Clarity Act dropping sharply.

Even if passed, some analysts argue it could drain liquidity through:

• Forced dollarization
• Yield restrictions
• Stablecoin selling pressure
• Increased bank control over crypto rails

Translation?

Regulation may slow innovation before it strengthens adoption.

At the same time, Ethereum co founder Vitalik Buterin has sold over 11,000 ETH (~$22M) since early February.

Smart money reducing exposure during uncertainty is not random.

It’s risk management.

Welsh Bull rule:

📌 Watch actions, not narratives.

Market fear recently hit level 5.

The lowest reading ever recorded.

This has only happened twice before:

• August 2019
• February 2026

Meanwhile:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw -$879M in outflows over the last 10 trading sessions.

Historically, extreme fear + heavy selling often appears near local bottoms.

Not guarantees.

But signals.

When positioning becomes crowded on one side, markets tend to move the opposite direction.

And suddenly…

BTC ripped higher by over $6,600 in two days, forcing shorts to cover.

Classic bear market behaviour.

Violent rallies inside uncertain structure.

The bounce looks encouraging.

But structure matters more than emotion.

🟢 Support: 60K
🔴 Major Support: 49K

⚠️ Resistance: 71K
⚠️ Major Resistance: 74K

As long as Bitcoin trades below 71K:

Celebration is premature.

Welsh Bull methodology:

Let the tape prove the move.

Reclaim first. Celebrate later.

The recent reversal before retesting 60K does suggest a potential higher low.

That’s constructive.

But confirmation still matters.

USDT dominance continues pressing higher resistance.

Stablecoin dominance rising means capital is defensive.

Money is waiting.

Not deploying aggressively.

Until liquidity rotates back into risk, upside remains fragile.

ETH defended 1760 support again and reclaimed 2K psychologically.

Still:

Below 2.1K = caution zone.

SOL continues weakening 80 support.

Best bullish scenario?

Range between 80 and 112 suggesting accumulation.

But weakened supports eventually break if buyers disappear.

Support sits near 1.25.

Key reclaim level now moved lower to 1.68.

Trend still fragile.

Zoom out.

Global instability is increasing.

We’re seeing:

• Trade disruptions and tariff volatility
• Dedollarization accelerating
• Gold rising in global reserves
• Freight activity declining
• Bond markets pricing long term rate cuts
• AI threatening labor markets

The Cass Freight Index has now declined for 36 straight months.

Historically, this precedes recessions.

Welsh Bull takeaway:

Crypto does not trade in isolation.

Liquidity drives everything.

While crypto struggles…

Gold continues strengthening.

Capital rotates toward safety when uncertainty rises.

Markets are hedging risk before headlines confirm it.

Smart money moves early.

Retail reacts late.

US housing is stabilizing temporarily.

Inventory rising.
Prices cooling.
Mortgage rates easing slightly.

But historically, late cycle stabilization often appears before disruption.

The 18.6 year economic cycle suggests turbulence into 2026 to 2027 remains possible.

Transition year.

Not expansion year.

Right now the market is asking one question:

Not how low price goes.

But how long this phase lasts.

Duration matters more than depth.

We are likely in a grinding transition phase rather than a single capitulation event.

Which means:

Patience beats aggression.

✅ Protect capital
✅ Reduce emotional trading
✅ Respect resistance levels
✅ Expect relief rallies
✅ Study narratives quietly
✅ Wait for structural confirmation

Bull markets reward aggression.

Bear markets reward survival.

The bulls who preserve capital now will deploy hardest when liquidity returns.

Protect the downside.
Press the upside when structure confirms.

Welsh Bull 🐂🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.