Welcome back to the Welsh Bull newsletter.

Markets are shifting.

Bitcoin has broken key levels. Gold is holding strength. Consumers are slowing. Capital is rotating defensively.

This is not noise. This is transition.

We are entering a volatility phase where structure matters more than sentiment, and discipline matters more than predictions.

In this edition, we’ll break down:

• Bitcoin’s confirmed breakdown
• Key support and resistance levels to watch
• Why gold is acting differently
• What macro signals are quietly flashing
• And how smart bulls position during uncertain cycles

Remember:

Protect the downside.
Press the upside when structure returns.
Stay patient through cycles.

Let’s get into it. 🐂

The Welsh Bull survives both.

We’re seeing multiple pressure points build at the same time:

• US retail sales stalled
• Credit card delinquencies at highest since 2011
• Labor cost growth slowing
• Consumer confidence weakening
• USD credibility questions resurfacing

Meanwhile, asset markets are still elevated.

This is classic late-cycle tension.

The divergence between analysts’ optimism and consumer pessimism is widening. That does not automatically mean collapse. But it does mean risk must be respected.

Welsh Bull rule:
When uncertainty rises, position sizing matters more than predictions.

Bitcoin has decisively closed below 71k.

That weekly breakdown matters.

Historically, bear markets have averaged around 12 months. This downturn began in October 2025. If history rhymes, weakness could persist toward Q3 or Q4 2026.

But cycles are frameworks, not guarantees.

Support 1: 60k
Support 2: 49k

Resistance 1: 71k
Resistance 2: 74k

BTC is trading inside a prior accumulation zone. These zones are messy. Buyers and sellers fight here. You will see wicks. You will see fake strength.

The correct approach right now is patience.

Not prediction. Not panic.

Conviction only comes after structure improves.

Welsh Bull mindset:
Do not catch knives. Wait for confirmation.

USDT.D is breaking higher again.

That means capital is rotating to safety inside crypto.

When stablecoin dominance rises, risk appetite falls.

Respect that signal.

ETH has lost 2100 support and is now below it.
1760 is the next key level. If that fails, 1360 is exposed.

SOL is testing 80 support. A close below that opens air underneath.

XRP is structurally weak. Any rally below 1.78 should be treated cautiously.

This is not the environment for oversized risk.

This is the environment for controlled exposure.

While crypto weakens, gold remains structurally strong.

Trading not far from all time highs around 5.6k.

Support levels:
4940
4550
4430

Gold strength alongside USD weakness narrative and recession fears tells you something important.

Capital is hedging.

When fear rises, gold gets bid.

US housing is stabilising slightly.

Homebuilders ETF flipped bullish above 112.

But zoom out.

Sales are slow. Homes taking longer to move. Pending sales down year on year.

Late-cycle optimism often appears before rollover.

This could be a final push higher before broader weakness sets in.

Stay alert.

We are stuck between:

This is where most investors get emotional.

Welsh Bull approach:

We do not marry narratives.
We manage risk.
We adapt to structure.

All outcomes remain possible.

Muted bull run.
Extended bear market.
Macro shock.

Which is why discipline matters more than certainty.

• Keep position sizes controlled
• Avoid emotional trades
• Respect breakdowns
• Expect relief rallies inside downtrends
• Preserve capital for when structure improves

Bull markets reward aggression.

Bear markets reward survival.

The bull that survives the winter runs hardest in the spring.

Retail sentiment is fearful.

That can be contrarian bullish short term.

But structurally, we are still in a weak phase across multiple markets.

This is not the time for ego.

It is the time for structure.

Protect the downside.
Press the upside when it returns.
Stay patient through cycles.

See you next week.

The Welsh Bull 🐂 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

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