Welcome back to the Welsh Bull newsletter.

Last week I called SpaceX the biggest trap in the market.

Not because SpaceX is a bad company. Because the structure was broken.

SPCX was trading around $225 at the time. This week it hit $153.

📉 A 28% drop in seven days.

The warning signs were all there: only 4% of shares available to the public, trillions in passive funds forced to buy at any price, insider unlocks approaching, and a valuation completely detached from fundamentals.

The company was never the problem.

The market structure was.

This is what the Welsh Bull framework is built around. Not predictions. Not hype. Structure. Mechanics. Risk.

If you missed last week's issue it is worth going back and reading it now. The thesis played out almost exactly as outlined.

Now let us talk about what is happening this week.

Because something even bigger just shifted.

Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting this week and wasted no time putting his stamp on the Fed.

Rates held. No surprise there.

But the thing that actually matters is what was removed.

Forward guidance. Gone.

The dot plot projections, the grid that shows where officials expect rates to go, has been scrapped.

The Fed's message is now simple:

Then came the part that really rattled markets.

⚠️ Half of the FOMC committee now expects a rate hike before the end of the year.

Not a hold.

A hike.

This is not the Fed that crypto has been pricing in. The market spent the last year expecting cuts. That narrative just got ripped up.

Without forward guidance, every meeting becomes a live decision. Every data point becomes a potential trigger. The market can no longer price in the future with any confidence.

That uncertainty does not resolve quickly.

It becomes the new operating environment for everything.

Here is the context behind why this matters so much.

💰 $39 Trillion US National Debt

The 30-year bond hit a 19-year high of 5.2% this week. The 10-year reached 4.7%.

If rates stay elevated, annual interest payments on US debt could hit:

💰 $2.5 Trillion Per Year

by 2036.

That is roughly 30% of all federal revenue.

Not defence.

Not healthcare.

Not roads.

Just the cost of servicing existing debt.

At some point that number stops being a projection and starts becoming a crisis.

The Fed removing its own guidance while half the committee wants to hike is not the direction that makes any of that easier to manage.

While markets watch the Fed, the labour market is quietly sending its own signals.

📉 97,006 job cuts were announced in May, the highest May total since 2020.

That figure was 16% higher than April, and almost 40% of those cuts cited AI as a direct factor.

Meanwhile, real retail sales adjusted for inflation fell:

📉 1.3%

the largest monthly decline since at least 2023.

The number of Americans who want a job but are not counted in the headline figures rose to:

📊 6.2 Million People

the highest level since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

The headline unemployment number still looks reasonable.

The data beneath the surface tells a very different story.

Bitcoin finished the week down 3.8% to $63,848 USD.

Ethereum lost 4.1% to $1,723 USD.

XRP dropped 8.9%.

Solana fell 3.1%.

The Fear and Greed Index currently sits at:

⚠️ 23 — Extreme Fear

Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $226 million USD over the past week.

Stablecoin supply continues contracting.

US buyers remain absent, with the Coinbase Premium Index staying negative.

Without a fresh catalyst — whether that is a dovish Fed pivot, Clarity Act resolution, or stablecoin supply reversing — the path of least resistance in the near term remains sideways to lower.

⛏️ Five Months Below Production Cost

Here is the number that stopped me this week.

According to JPMorgan, Bitcoin has traded below its estimated production cost for five consecutive months.

That is not common.

Historically, when Bitcoin trades below the cost to mine it for an extended period, one of two things happens. Either inefficient miners capitulate and leave the network, or price recovers as the unsustainable dynamic corrects itself.

Bitcoin mining difficulty recently dropped more than 10%.

That is miners leaving.

That is the first stage of capitulation playing out.

This does not mean the bottom is in.

CryptoCon's Logarithmic MVRV indicator suggests Bitcoin could still fall to around $42,500 USD in a worst-case scenario.

Galaxy Research shows the current 49% drawdown remains significantly smaller than previous cycles, which saw declines of 70% to 90%.

What the Cycle Playbook teaches is simple.

Every prolonged period of Bitcoin trading below production cost has historically been followed by a significant recovery.

It does not tell you when.

It tells you conditions are becoming more favourable for patient buyers, not less.

⚠️ Fear & Greed at 23.

⛏️ Five months below production cost.

📉 Miner capitulation beginning.

This is not a comfortable environment.

Historically, it is where the best setups start forming.

Glassnode's Altcoin Cycle Signal has moved back into Altcoin Season territory.

Not because altcoins are suddenly strong.

Because Bitcoin's relative weakness has shifted the ratio.

At the same time, aggressive altcoin selling appears to be running out of steam. The relentless downside pressure that has dominated much of this year is beginning to fade, suggesting sellers are becoming exhausted.

This does not mean altcoin season is arriving tomorrow.

It simply means the conditions are beginning to change.

For investors slowly building positions in higher-conviction altcoins, this is the type of environment worth paying attention to long before the headlines catch up.

Ethereum is down more than 4% this week and has had a difficult few months from a price perspective.

But separate the price from the fundamentals for a moment.

Ethereum's next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, is now entering the final stages before testnet deployment. The upgrade introduces parallel processing, decentralised block building and a significant overhaul of gas pricing mechanisms designed to improve scalability and efficiency.

Meanwhile, Token Terminal's Q1 data tells a very different story beneath the surface.

📈 Monthly active users up 85.9%

📈 Transaction count up 81.5%

📈 Throughput up 81.7%

year over year.

Those are not the numbers of a dying network.

Five former Ethereum Foundation researchers also launched a new non-profit called ETH Labs this week to accelerate protocol development. The initiative already has institutional backing and is focused on strengthening Ethereum's long-term competitiveness.

Price follows fundamentals.

Not always immediately.

But eventually.

Polymarket odds on the Clarity Act passing this year have now fallen to:

📊 45%

The July 4 deadline is increasingly being viewed as unrealistic.

The primary sticking point remains ethics provisions, although one committee chair summed up the situation rather bluntly this week:

That is not ideological opposition.

It is institutional unfamiliarity.

And while that slows progress, it is also a problem that can be solved over time.

The timeline may be slipping.

The direction of travel still appears positive.

Last week I covered Greenvale Energy's transformational acquisition of the Pine Creek Uranium Project.

The Thunderball deposit.

World-class grades.

A district-scale land position in the Northern Territory.

This week the company continued building momentum.

On June 24th, Greenvale confirmed completion of a major airborne magnetics and radiometric survey across the entire Thunderball project.

📊 4,312 line kilometres

📊 100-metre spacing

To put that into perspective, previous surveys across the same ground were flown at spacings of up to 400 metres. This new dataset delivers roughly four times the resolution of anything that has come before it.

That matters enormously.

Higher-resolution geophysics allows targets to be identified with far greater precision before a single drill hole enters the ground. It reduces guesswork and increases confidence in where exploration dollars are spent.

The survey has already identified multiple helium and radon anomalies across the project. Both gases are directly associated with uranium mineralisation moving through faults and fractures, making them important indicators for future drilling programs.

Those anomalies are now mapped at a level of detail that simply was not available before this survey.

The next phase is an airborne electromagnetic survey using the SkyTEM system, specifically designed to detect multiple styles of uranium deposits at regional scale. Importantly, the work is being co-funded through an NT Government exploration grant.

Greenvale was one of just 34 projects awarded support from a record $4 million funding pool this year.

The market responded positively.

📈 GRV closed up 8.57%

💰 $0.038 AUD

on the day of the announcement.

The machine is moving.

Field teams are being secured, exploration activity is accelerating, and drilling is getting closer.

There is a political tailwind building behind all of this that I do not think enough investors are paying attention to.

Pauline Hanson put it plainly this week.

Australia is the fourth-largest uranium exporter in the world, yet only one state, South Australia, currently mines it.

The Northern Territory, where Greenvale's Thunderball project sits, is not yet a uranium producer.

That is not a geological problem.

It is a political one.

At the same time, the world is accelerating toward nuclear energy. Governments across Europe, Asia and North America are extending reactor lifetimes, approving new builds and signing long-term uranium supply agreements to secure future energy needs.

Global uranium demand is not slowing down.

It is growing.

Australia already sits on some of the largest and highest-grade uranium deposits on the planet. The gap between what we currently export and what we could export remains enormous.

If the Northern Territory eventually opens further to uranium production — and political momentum appears to be moving in that direction — Greenvale could find itself positioned at the front of that queue with a district-scale land package in a world-class uranium province.

This remains a 1% satellite position for me.

It is speculative.

It is small-cap.

It is long duration.

But the setup becomes more compelling with every update.

As always:

⚠️ General information only.

⚠️ Not financial advice.

⚠️ Do your own research.

Earlier this month I added approximately:

💰 $3,500 USD (~$5,000 AUD)

to my Bitcoin position at Extreme Fear levels.

I am holding that position and nothing has changed in the thesis. If anything, five months below production cost and the beginning of miner capitulation strengthen the medium-term case rather than weaken it.

My portfolio structure remains unchanged.

The core of the portfolio is designed to capture broad market growth through global diversification. The satellite positions exist to provide targeted exposure to higher-conviction themes where I believe the risk-reward profile is attractive.

📊 VTI — 50%

🌍 VXUS — 30%

₿ BTC — 10%

🤖 PLTR — 5%

⚡ TSLA — 2.5%

🧠 QTUM — 1.5%

☢️ GRV — 1%

There have been no changes to the stock positions this week.

GRV moved higher following the latest uranium announcement, but position sizing remains disciplined. I do not chase positions because they move. I let the structure and allocation framework do the heavy lifting over time.

SPCX remains on the watchlist.

Not in the portfolio.

The setup is not there yet.

When it is, I will say so.

I share this portfolio to demonstrate structure, not to be copied blindly. Your financial goals, risk tolerance and investment horizon are unique to you.

Several key events have the potential to move markets over the coming week.

Thursday brings both US GDP growth data and the Core PCE inflation reading. If PCE comes in around the expected 0.2%–0.3%, it reinforces the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative and pushes potential rate cuts further into the future.

That would likely place additional pressure on risk assets.

The market remains extremely sensitive to inflation data right now, particularly after the Fed's shift in tone this week.

Gold is currently sitting on major support near:

💰 $4,000 USD

June is historically one of gold's weakest months, making this an important level to watch. Key resistance levels sit near:

📈 $4,400 USD

📈 $4,750 USD

How gold behaves from here will tell us a lot about investor sentiment heading into the second half of the year.

The Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high this week. Historically, higher Japanese rates can trigger an unwind of the yen carry trade, removing liquidity from global risk assets and creating pressure across risk markets.

It is one of those macro stories that rarely receives attention until after the impact has already begun.

Meanwhile, the RBA held rates steady at:

📊 4.35%

No surprises there.

The focus remains on inflation, wage growth and how policymakers balance slowing the economy without creating unnecessary damage.

The current market environment is exactly why I created the free resources available on the website.

When markets become uncertain, frameworks become more valuable.

The Cycle Playbook breaks down the four major phases of every market cycle:

🏗️ Accumulation

📈 Expansion

🚀 Euphoria

📉 Contraction

Understanding where you are in the cycle changes everything about how you allocate capital, manage risk and make decisions.

Simple.

Practical.

Free.

The X Monetisation Guide is also available for anyone building a personal brand, online business or audience. It walks through the exact framework I used to grow Welsh Bull Trader and turn content into an asset.

Both resources are available free at:

👉 thewelshbull.com.au

If you want the complete framework behind how I navigate markets like this, the LMS Framework is where everything comes together.

Inside you'll learn how to identify market cycles, build a portfolio with structure, manage risk during volatility, allocate capital properly and avoid the emotional mistakes that destroy long-term returns.

The objective is not to predict every market move.

The objective is to make better decisions consistently.

That is what creates wealth.

📖 The Welsh Bull LMS Framework

💰 $279 USD

👉 thewelshbull.com.au/courses

If you would prefer personalised guidance, one-on-one consulting is also available through the website. Together we can work through your portfolio structure, risk exposure, next actions and long-term strategy.

The Fed dropped its rulebook this week.

No forward guidance.

No dot plots.

Half the committee now expects hikes.

At the same time:

⛏️ Bitcoin remains below production cost

🔁 Altcoin sellers are showing signs of exhaustion

☢️ Uranium exploration activity continues accelerating

📉 SPCX just fell 28% exactly as the framework suggested it could

The lesson remains the same as it has always been.

In markets like this, structure wins.

Not predictions.

Not headlines.

Not conviction built on hype.

Structure.

Know where you are in the cycle.

Know your risk.

Know your plan before volatility arrives, not during it.

The investors who thrive during periods like this are not the ones with the best guesses.

They are the ones with the best frameworks.

Protect the downside.

Press the upside.

See you next week.

The Welsh Bull 🐂 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.