Welcome back to the Welsh Bull newsletter.

This is where we focus on conviction over noise, risk before reward, and building wealth through cycles not headlines.

Markets right now are sending mixed signals.

Crypto is bouncing.
Stocks are fragile.
Oil just collapsed.
Gold is pausing.
Global uncertainty is exploding.

This is the type of environment where emotional investors get shaken out and disciplined investors quietly position.

Let’s break down what’s actually happening.

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated dramatically.

Oil infrastructure across the Gulf region has come under direct threat, including facilities in:

• Iran
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE
• Bahrain
• Kuwait
• Qatar
• Iraq
• Oman

Meanwhile tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stalled, with hundreds of oil tankers waiting offshore for clarity.

Energy markets hate uncertainty.

And right now the world is swimming in it.

The World Uncertainty Index has just reached the highest level ever recorded.

That should get your attention.

One of the most dramatic moves in markets this week came from energy.

Oil prices collapsed over 35% in just 36 hours.

Moves like this are rare.

They usually signal one of two things:

• extreme panic positioning
• massive forced liquidation

Either way, volatility of this magnitude tells us something important.

Liquidity conditions are fragile.

Welsh Bull rule:

Volatility is not noise.
Volatility is information.

Another signal building quietly beneath the surface:

American households are showing signs of stress.

According to the New York Fed, household debt delinquency has climbed to 4.8%, the highest level since 2017.

The biggest drivers?

• Credit card defaults
• Auto loan defaults

Mortgage delinquencies remain low.

But historically, consumer stress starts with credit cards before it spreads into the broader economy.

This suggests households are stretching financially.

The latest US jobs report surprised markets.

Instead of adding jobs, the economy lost 92,000 jobs.

Economists were expecting gains of around 50,000–60,000.

Meanwhile unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.4%.

This creates a difficult situation for central banks.

Cut rates too early and inflation returns.

Wait too long and economic slowdown accelerates.

Either way, volatility increases.

Gold has been one of the strongest assets of the past year.

Up roughly 60% during 2025.

But recently something interesting happened.

Despite global uncertainty rising…

Gold pulled back.

Profit taking kicked in earlier than expected.

Support: $5,000
Support: $4,800

Resistance: $5,400
Resistance: $5,600

The weekly trend remains bullish.

But how price reacts around the $5K level will tell us a lot about the next move.

Welsh Bull principle:

Let the market confirm the narrative.

Housing markets are showing signs of pressure globally.

In Europe, affordability has become so extreme that startups are now selling individual bedrooms in shared apartments for up to €80,000.

Yes.

Just the bedroom.

Meanwhile in the US, the Homebuilders ETF has lost its weekly uptrend.

The $112 support level flipped into resistance, and price is now hovering near $106, an important technical level.

Housing is often a leading indicator for economic slowdowns.

And the signal right now is weakening.

At first glance the S&P 500 looks relatively calm.

But under the surface there is enormous volatility.

Stock dispersion has reached the highest level ever recorded.

That means individual stocks are swinging wildly even while the index itself remains flat.

Investors are rotating capital rather than exiting the market entirely.

Two sectors are attracting capital right now.

AI infrastructure and data centers require enormous amounts of electricity.

More servers mean more power demand.

Energy companies are quietly benefiting.

Companies like:

• Walmart
• Coca-Cola
• PepsiCo

These businesses remain stable during uncertainty because demand for basic goods stays consistent.

But investors should be careful.

Sometimes safety becomes expensive.

Walmart currently trades around 50× earnings.

As legendary investor Shelby Davis once said:

“Paying too much for safety creates return-free risk.”

A safe company is not always a safe investment.

Right now we are seeing:

• Rising geopolitical tension
• Consumer financial stress
• Labor market cracks
• AI driven sector rotation
• Housing market weakness
• Extreme volatility in commodities

All while markets attempt to push higher.

This is classic late-cycle behaviour.

Which means discipline matters more than ever.

When uncertainty rises:

Protect capital first.
Position carefully.
Avoid emotional decisions.
Look for asymmetric opportunities.

The market is entering a phase where patience becomes the biggest edge.

Bull markets reward aggression.

Late-cycle markets reward discipline.

The bulls who manage risk now will be ready when the next opportunity appears.

Protect the downside.
Press the upside when structure confirms.

See you next week.
Protect the downside. Press the upside.

Welsh Bull 🐂🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

With Bitcoin starting to wake up again, attention is returning to the market.

And every cycle the same thing happens:

New investors enter without structure.

They open accounts randomly.
They buy randomly.
They panic when volatility appears.

Most people don’t lose in crypto because they picked the wrong coin.

They lose because they never built a framework.

That’s exactly why I created The Welsh Bull LMS Framework.

Learn. Manage. Scale.

Inside you’ll find:

• Bitcoin’s monetary structure and market cycles
• How to build a Bitcoin-focused portfolio
• Allocation before emotion
• Dollar Cost Averaging done properly
• Position sizing and drawdown control
• Profit extraction and rebalancing
• The Welsh Bull Playbook for navigating volatility

If you want to approach crypto with structure instead of randomness, this is where to start.

👉 Get the LMS Framework here:
https://thewelshbull.gumroad.com/l/bjvlj

Price: $49

Learn. Manage. Scale.

🏦 Bank Accounts:

ING: Receive $125 free bonus with code: Gjt838

📈 To Buy Stocks:

Moomoo: Receive up to 38 free shares and free brokerage for 30 days. Great for beginners.

🟡 To Buy Crypto:

Independent Reserve: Receive $20 in free Bitcoin. No deposit required.

Coinspot: Receive $10 in free Bitcoin with your first deposit (minimum $1).

Bybit: Receive $20 sign up bonus

Welsh Bull - YouTube Channel: Where I share free videos about investing, personal finance, education and strategy

Welsh Bull - Twitter Page (X): Market thoughts and more controversial commentary

Welsh Bull Newsletter - Want to share this newsletter with a friend? Please send them this link.

Welsh Bull Email - [email protected]

If you like the content and want to support, buy me a coffee ☕️

Every brew goes straight back into better content—more research, sharper charts, and keeping the free signals flowing for the community.

👉 Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/welshbull

This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.