Welcome back to the Welsh Bull newsletter.

This market just got harder.

Not because Bitcoin is broken.

Not because crypto is dead.

But because macro is back in control.

For the last few years, liquidity solved almost everything.

Bad projects pumped.
Bad portfolios pumped.
Bad decisions got rewarded.

Now?

The easy environment is disappearing.

📈 Bond yields are surging
⛽ Oil prices are climbing
🏦 Central banks are divided
⚠️ Inflation pressure is creeping back
🪙 Crypto leverage is being flushed
🇦🇺 Governments are rewriting tax rules

This is no longer a “buy anything and win” market.

This is becoming a structure market.

And that matters.

Because the investors who win the next few years won’t be the loudest.

They’ll be the most disciplined.

Bitcoin took a proper hit this week.

Over $563M USD in long positions were liquidated in 24 hours, the biggest wipeout since February.

Bitcoin finished the week trading around:

🟠 $76,614 USD
🟣 Ethereum: $2,123 USD

Meanwhile:

🔻 XRP fell 6%
🔻 Solana dropped 12.2%
🔻 Dogecoin lost 6.3%
🔻 Cardano slid back toward 2023 price levels

And yes…

that sounds ugly.

But context matters.

Fear and Greed now sits at:

⚠️ 25 — Extreme Fear

Here’s what most people miss:

Bitcoin failing to break higher does not automatically mean the cycle is over.

Sometimes markets simply need to reset.

One of the most important things happening underneath the surface:

Funding rates flipped toward zero or negative.

That tells us something important.

Leverage got flushed.

Translation?

Too many traders got overconfident.

And the market punished them.

Historically, aggressive deleveraging often lays the groundwork for healthier moves higher later.

CryptoQuant also highlighted Bitcoin’s realised on-chain trader price around:

🟠 $70,000 USD

as an important support zone.

Can price go lower?

Absolutely.

But there’s a huge difference between:

📉 a pullback
and
💥 structural failure

Most investors confuse the two.

This is the real story.

Bitcoin didn’t stall in isolation.

Macro hit the brakes.

Bitcoin tried reclaiming:

🟠 $82,000 USD

and failed. It then slipped back below $77,000 USD despite positive crypto regulation progress.

Why?

Because markets suddenly got nervous again.

The Iran conflict continues pushing:

⛽ Oil prices higher
📈 Inflation fears higher
⚠️ Market uncertainty higher

And bond markets are screaming.

This matters.

A lot.

US 30 year bond yields climbed above:

🏦 5.13%

for the first time since 2007.

Japan’s 10 year yields hit roughly:

🇯🇵 2.7%

their highest level in two decades.

Eurozone 10 year yields surged toward:

🇪🇺 3.18%

their highest levels in around 15 years.

Why does this matter?

Because yields are effectively market gravity.

When “safe” assets suddenly pay more…

risk assets become harder to justify.

That impacts:

📈 growth stocks
🪙 crypto
🤖 speculative tech
⚡ high multiple companies

Liquidity tightens.

Markets become less forgiving.

And volatility rises.

Another huge development:

Kevin Warsh, viewed as relatively pro crypto, is stepping into a much more difficult macro environment.

Because inflation pressure tied to energy prices could make future rate cuts much harder.

Meaning:

markets may not get the easy money environment they expected.

That matters for Bitcoin.

Because liquidity still drives everything.

Most people are massively underestimating this.

The Senate Banking Committee voted:

✅ 15–9

to advance the Clarity Act.

This is one of the biggest crypto regulatory developments in years.

And importantly:

it received support from multiple Democratic senators.

Why does this matter?

Because institutions hate uncertainty.

The Clarity Act helps define:

✔ who regulates crypto
✔ digital asset rules
✔ exchange responsibilities
✔ stablecoin frameworks
✔ investor protections

Markets don’t need perfect regulation.

They need certainty.

And certainty attracts capital.

That’s why I keep saying:

Crypto is slowly maturing from:

🎰 speculative casino

to

🏦 legitimate financial infrastructure

The bill isn’t perfect.

Negotiations removed protections for decentralised blockchain developers to help get it passed through committee.

There are also ongoing debates around:

⚠️ ethics rules
⚠️ political conflicts of interest
⚠️ stablecoin restrictions
⚠️ regulatory control

The full Senate vote could happen between:

📅 June to August

with markets currently giving it roughly:

📊 64% odds of passing this year

That’s meaningful.

Another headline that scared people unnecessarily.

Strategy announced plans to repurchase:

💰 $1.5B USD in debt at around 92 cents on the dollar.

The company listed Bitcoin sales as one possible funding source.

Cue panic.

“Michael Saylor is selling!”

Slow down.

Context matters.

Strategy still holds:

₿ 818,869 BTC

making it the largest institutional Bitcoin holder on earth, even larger than BlackRock’s ETF exposure.

Saylor reaffirmed net accumulation plans, saying Strategy intends to buy:

🟠 10–20 BTC for every BTC sold

This isn’t capitulation.

It’s treasury management.

Big difference.

Another overlooked signal:

Institutional money is becoming more selective.

Harvard reduced its Bitcoin ETF position by:

📉 43%

and fully exited Ethereum ETF exposure.

Meanwhile:

Jane Street reduced roughly:

💰 $800M USD in Bitcoin related exposure

while increasing ETH exposure elsewhere.

What does that tell us?

Institutions aren’t leaving crypto.

They’re refining exposure.

This isn’t 2021 anymore.

Everything won’t go up together forever.

Selection matters now.

This part matters.

OTC desks are seeing:

📉 mostly sell flows
💵 increased stablecoin selling
⚠️ investors reducing risk exposure

That’s not panic.

That’s caution.

And late cycle caution matters.

Quietly…

another massive shift is happening.

The SEC is preparing “innovation exemptions” for tokenised stocks.

Why care?

Because this could completely change how people interact with financial markets.

Imagine:

24/7 trading
fractional ownership
blockchain settlement
global accessibility

That future is arriving faster than most people realise.

Now let’s talk about the thing that quietly matters just as much as Bitcoin.

Taxes.

And for Aussie investors…

this could be one of the biggest investing changes in decades.

Most headlines focused on property.

But here’s what people missed:

⚠️ These proposed CGT changes hit:

📈 Shares
🪙 Crypto
💰 ETFs
🏠 Investment assets

If you own:

VGS
VAS
A200
IVV
NDQ
Bitcoin
Ethereum

or even a few CommSec shares you bought years ago…

this matters to you.

Big time.

The timeline matters.

These rules are proposed to begin:

📆 1 July 2027

Meaning:

Anything bought and sold before then still falls under the current rules.

That’s important.

Because I’m already seeing people panic online.

Slow down.

Nothing changes tomorrow.

You still have time.

And importantly…

tax policy changes all the time.

The next federal election arrives in 2028, meaning there’s every chance parts of this get revised, watered down, delayed, or scrapped entirely.

Don’t make emotional decisions.

Under the current system:

Hold an investment longer than 12 months?

You receive:

✅ 50% CGT discount

Simple.

Example:

Make a:

💰 $10,000 gain

Only:

💰 $5,000

becomes taxable at your marginal tax rate.

Easy.

But under the proposed rules?

Everything changes.

The current discount gets removed.

Instead:

📊 inflation indexation

takes over.

Meaning:

Your purchase price gets adjusted upward for inflation.

You then only pay tax on your real gain above inflation.

At first glance?

Sounds reasonable.

But there’s a catch.

This is the bit frustrating most investors.

Even if your tax bracket is lower than 30%…

you still pay:

⚠️ minimum 30% CGT

on gains.

That especially impacts:

👷 lower income earners
👴 semi retired investors
🕒 part time workers
💰 variable income households

And yes…

crypto investors too.

Let’s make this easy.

Say:

You invest:

💰 $10,000

into an ETF in 2027

Ten years later…

you sell for:

💰 $20,000

That’s a:

📈 $10,000 nominal gain

Now let’s assume inflation averages:

📊 3% annually

After 10 years:

your original purchase price gets indexed to roughly:

💰 $13,439

Meaning:

your REAL taxable gain becomes:

📈 $6,561

Now the tax applies.

You earn:

💰 $70,000

You pay:

⚠️ 30% tax

≈ $1,968 tax bill

You earn:

💰 $35,000

Normally your tax rate is much lower.

But because of the 30% floor…

you STILL pay:

⚠️ $1,968 tax bill

Under the old rules?

That lower income investor may have paid around:

💰 $800

instead.

That’s a meaningful difference.

I’ll be honest.

I don’t love the change.

If affordability was the problem…

the Government could have targeted housing only.

Instead…

they’ve widened the net.

And that affects long term investors too.

But…

this is where emotion gets investors into trouble.

Because:

⚠️ change ≠ catastrophe

Markets evolve.

Tax rules evolve.

Investing evolves.

Smart investors adapt.

One hugely overlooked detail:

Superannuation is NOT impacted the same way.

Super funds still retain their:

✅ 1/3 CGT discount

inside accumulation phase, creating roughly:

💰 10% effective tax on long term gains

Translation?

Super just became even more powerful for long term investing.

If you’ve ignored it…

might be time to rethink that.

This is exactly why I constantly talk about:

structure > hype

Most people invest like this:

buy random assets
at random times
with random sizing
based on random headlines

That’s gambling.

Not investing.

My own framework stays simple.

📊 VTI — 50%
Broad US market exposure.

Large caps.
Mid caps.
Small caps.

You own the engine.

🌍 VXUS — 30%
International diversification.

Because no country dominates forever.

₿ BTC — 10%
Asymmetric upside.

Volatile?

Absolutely.

But increasingly important in a world drowning in debt and currency debasement.

🤖 PLTR — 5%
AI + defence + data systems.

⚡ TSLA — 2.5%
Robotics, autonomy, manufacturing.

🧠 QTUM — 1.5%
Quantum computing exposure.

☢️ GRV — 1%
Nuclear and uranium exposure.

Higher upside.

But controlled risk.

That part matters.

If you’re serious about learning this stuff properly:

thewelshbull.com.au

Frameworks.
Market education.
Portfolio structure.
Long term thinking.

Built for investors who want clarity, not chaos.

The market is changing.

Easy money environments don’t last forever.

Governments change rules.

Liquidity changes.

Cycles change.

The investors who survive?

Adapt faster than everyone else.

Protect the downside.

Press the upside.

See you next week.

The Welsh Bull 🐂 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Most people don’t fail in crypto because they lack intelligence.

They fail because nobody gives them structure.

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No hype.

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This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.