Welcome back to the Welsh Bull newsletter.

This is where we focus on conviction over noise, risk before reward, and building wealth through cycles not headlines.

Right now, markets are sending a very unusual signal.

The world is in chaos.
War is escalating.
Oil is volatile.
Stocks are shaky.

And somehow…

Bitcoin is ripping.

Let’s break down what’s actually going on.

Global tensions in the Middle East have intensified rapidly.

Oil infrastructure is under threat.
The Strait of Hormuz is unstable.
Military escalation is ongoing.

And yet…

Bitcoin is up nearly 25% from the lows.

This week alone:

₿ Bitcoin: ~$74,312 (+8.3%)
⚙️ Ethereum: ~$2,331 (+16.4%)

Altcoins like XRP, Solana, Cardano and Dogecoin also pushed higher, gaining 11–13%.

Meanwhile the Fear & Greed Index sits at 28.

Still fear.

But improving.

Welsh Bull takeaway:

Markets don’t wait for clarity.
They move ahead of it.

Oil markets are being driven by pure uncertainty.

The US has struck key Iranian infrastructure, including Kharg Island, which accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports.

At the same time:

• Tanker routes remain unstable
• Supply chains are at risk
• Escalation is unpredictable

This is not a normal environment.

This is headline driven volatility.

And volatility changes positioning fast.

All eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve.

No rate cut is expected this week.

But tone matters.

Massively.

Markets have already repriced expectations:

Only 25bps of cuts expected by end of 2026, down from 56bps just a month ago.

Translation:

Higher for longer is creeping back.

If the Fed stays hawkish, risk assets could stall.

If they soften, this rally could extend.

Welsh Bull rule:

Don’t predict the Fed.
React to the outcome.

The US dollar has surged.

DXY moved from ~95.5 to near 100.

Normally this pressures crypto.

But not this time.

Why?

Because crypto has its own catalysts right now:

• Elon Musk pushing X Money narratives
• Increasing payment integration speculation
• Growing belief crypto could challenge fiat long term

Even Stanley Druckenmiller has said:

The USD may not be the reserve currency in 50 years.
Bitcoin or crypto could take that role.

That’s a big statement.

From OTC desk flows:

• Buyers are returning to Bitcoin
• Some altcoins are being sold into strength
• Stablecoin inflows are increasing

That last point matters.

Stablecoins = dry powder.

Capital is preparing, not fully deploying.

Welsh Bull insight:

When money moves to stables, the market is waiting.

Institutional demand is quietly building.

• Bitcoin ETFs: +$767M inflows
• Ethereum ETFs: +$161M inflows
• XRP ETFs: +$28M inflows

BlackRock’s Ethereum staking ETF alone pulled in:

$45M in just 2 days.

Meanwhile:

Strategy bought 22,337 BTC worth $1.57B.

That is not retail behaviour.

That is conviction.

Australia is moving forward with crypto regulation.

New legislation aims to bring crypto platforms under the AFSL framework.

If passed:

Platforms will have 6 months to comply.

At the same time:

Ripple is acquiring an Australian company to secure its own AFSL.

Big players are positioning early.

Regulation is coming.

But so is legitimacy.

US regulation remains uncertain.

The Clarity Act has been pushed back until at least April.

Meanwhile, discussions are ongoing around:

• Stablecoin yield restrictions
• Banking integration
• Payment system control

Regulation is not a straight line.

Expect friction.

Despite the rally, not everything is bullish.

There was a recent $50M trade error where a user received only ~$36K due to low liquidity and MEV exploitation.

That’s a brutal reminder:

Liquidity matters.
Execution matters.
Structure matters.

This market still punishes mistakes.

Some key signals:

• Mastercard launched a global crypto partner program (85 companies)
• Stablecoins gaining traction globally
• AI + crypto integration increasing
• Illicit crypto activity in Australia remains under 1%

Despite volatility…

Adoption continues.

Quietly.

Consistently.

Right now we are seeing:

• Macro chaos
• Geopolitical escalation
• Strong dollar pressure
• Institutional accumulation
• Retail hesitation
• Early signs of momentum returning

This is not a clean bull market.

This is a transition phase.

Which means:

Opportunities exist.
But so does risk.

In this environment:

Protect the downside.
Position with intent.
Avoid chasing strength.
Respect volatility.

Let structure guide decisions.

Not headlines.

Not emotion.

Bull markets reward aggression.

Transition phases reward discipline.

See you next week.

The Welsh Bull 🐂 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.